The Iowa caucuses are just over two weeks away, and the New Hampshire primary eight days beyond that. They will, as they always do, nuke whatever conventional wisdom will have been established by national polling -- mainly because the delegate-selection process for a party's presidential nominating convention is never a national event.
There are those in various camps who even argue that the state-specific polls won't predict outcomes, and in a caucus state that is almost certainly true to some extent. If I were running a polling organization I would have figured out by now some ways to tweak the raw data and come up with something in the ballpark of actual results, but then again the caucuses have been vulnerable to gaming (read, "cheating" to us less sophistic flyover rubes).
I won't get a say in the process until March 1, Super Tuesday. In the past the outcomes in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have tended to leave unappetizing pickings by then. I gambled, though, by putting a campaign sticker on my car a couple of weeks ago. We'll see how long it stays there.
I'm going to try to have nothing to say about the Republican field before Iowa, because anything I could say before then would, like everything else that will be said in that period, be interpretations of events filtered through a partisan bias that won't serve any useful purpose.
"But aren't you a partisan?" you might ask. Yes, but although you probably wouldn't be reading if you didn't agree with me generally on issues, I have no reason to assume you share my particular partisanship on the question of candidacies. Election seasons do enough damage to friendships and alliances over Team Colors differences and I have no interest in getting into fights with people I agree with on almost everything else.
If you see me less on Twitter over the next few weeks, that will be why.
For now, hunker down, cover your ears, and beware of shrapnel.